Super Lotto 6/49 Statistical Studies and the Probability of Winning

 

This report on a lottery system 6/49 studied more than 2,250 actual draw results covering the period 2007 up to 2022. Its purpose is to explore the odds of winning from this type of lottery by using calculated probabilities. Perhaps, you are eager to find out which of the numbers 1 - 49 win most of the time; or to dig further, when a number is likely to win again. The results might surprise you.

All-Time Statistics

Odds of Winning a Lottery 6/49

The odds of winning a lottery 6/49 is 1:13,983,816. However, with the aid of Statistics, you can limit your choice of numbers to a few, thereby, in principle, increasing your chances of winning.

Even if there are exactly 13,983,816 possible combinations that can be formed with numbers 1 - 49, not every number has greater probability. At least, 623,392 combinations have the least probability. This comprises the all-odd, all-even, all-low and all-high form of combinations, not counting the delimiters. Though these types of combinations are entirely possible, they rarely make it to the jackpot.

The Winning Frequency of Each Number

To calculate the winning frequency of each number, we simply count the number of times the lotto number has won.

Which of the numbers win most of the time?

More than 13,000 balls drawn comprising 2,258 lottery draws, which of the numbers 1 - 49 win most of the time? The answer is: the number 17 which had won 310 times out of 2,258 draws; or 13.73% probability. That means, for every 100 draws 13 or 14 draws will produce 17 as a winning number. In another perspective, the lotto number 17 wins every 7 or 8 draws on an average. Does that sound great? Let's examine further.

Observation

The complete list that follows is arranged according to the numbers's frequency of winning. If 17 had won most of the time, the number 15 had won less at 10.45% equivalent to 236 wins. Note how close the probability rates are: 10% versus 13%. For the rest of the numbers, the probability rates were around 11% to 12%.

As the results data (in Statistics, the term is called population) grew larger, the probability rates seemed to flatten or even out.

Findings

So, it looks like there's not much a significant difference among the numbers as far as their frequency of winning is concerned. In other words, any number is as good as the other. Like I have observed, this is due to the large number of data (2,258 results); and most probably, the frequency probability rates will remain the same as we add more data in the next few years. 

Take pleasure in reviewing the rest of the data. At times, you may see different results below for the reason that the database is updated to cover only the most recent number of draws. 

If you are not seeing the live interactive data above, view the following snapshot. 

What if we narrow down the number of results? Should we see significant changes? That's when we look at trends -- and that is next.

Trends

As discussed earlier, covering a large data will eventually give a plateau of results. To remedy that, we look at a smaller group of results such as the most recent 30, 60 or the last 21 draws.

What's trending?

By covering only the last 21 draws, the lottery probabilities will give us a different picture. Take a look at the (latest) winning frequency of the numbers in a lottery 6/49. (Note. Data may not be updated)

Trends are more relevant than all-time winning frequencies for the reason that not every time that a number tops the list. For example, the all-time winning number 17 may tend to also hibernate at certain times.

Limiting your data to the last 21 draws is good news for lotto players who do not have access to a computer or spreadsheet app because all they need are the latest results of the last 21 draws, a paper, a pen and a calculator.

Can you see at this point which numbers are trending?

At a certain point, a trending number may stop trending. If such a case, which of the other numbers are likely to win?

Winning Values

A winning value of a lottery number is the number of times it had won so far at the moment of winning. For example, if 17 had recently won in the latest draw, how often had it won so far for the last 21 draws or so. By collecting these values for each lottery number, we will be able to find out, which of the numbers are likely to win again: the one with the most wins or the exact opposite? Let's find out.

Below is a summary of data collected from 2,245 draws.

Understanding the Winning Values Table

• The Win Value column refers to the number of times lotto numbers usually win within the last 21 draws. Win value of 1 means winning once; 2 means winning twice, etc. Zero means that the number had not been winning for the last 21 draws (cold numbers or in hibernation).
• Instance refers to the count of occurrence of each winning value. For example, lottery numbers win the win value of 2 had occurred 3575 times.
• The columns 0 - 6  breaks down the total figure of instances into instances per number. For example, the win value of 1 occurred once in 904 jackpot numbers; while it had occurred twice in 548 jackpot numbers.
• The lower portion present the figures in probability percentages.
• Figures in the grey column are just the opposite perspective of the other columns. For example, if win value 2 is present in 85.5% of the jackpot numbers, it does not exist in 14.5% of the jackpot numbers.
• The light grey zero percentages mean the least probability.

Interpreting the Winning Values Data

To analyze the data, we look at the percentages.

• Winning values of 1, 2, 3 and 4 have the higher probability rates under Instance: 61% - 85% of the draws. This means that lottery numbers with winning values of 1, 2, 3 or 4 are likely to win again compared to the other winning values. In other words, if a number had won only once, twice or thrice during the last 21 draws, they are more likely to win again compared to other numbers that had won more times than that.
• The next possible values are 0 and 5. The rest are also possible but not highly probable.
• If a lotto number had won 7 times or more during the 21-draw period, it is unlikely to win again as indicated by the low probability of 4.7% and 1.4%.

The next question is: how many lottery numbers with winning values of 2, 3, or 1 should you pick. Let's look at the breakdown of Instances.

• The higher percentages are 35% - 40% representing the winning values 1, 2, 3 and 4 under column 1. This means that jackpot numbers usually consist of one number with a winning value of 1 or 2 or 3 or 4. Winning values of zero or 5 can be as good at other times.
• Two of the jackpot numbers can have a winning value of 2, 3, 1 or 4. The rest are unlikely to happen.
• The winning values 2, 3 and 1 can exist thrice but very rarely.

To illustrate, let's look at an actual result drawn on 16 October 2022. These numbers were:

20 • 39 • 44 • 31 • 48 • 02 with winning values of 2 1 1 3 4 2 respectively. 

This means that 39 and 44 had won only once during the 21-draw period. The numbers 20 and 2 had won twice. The numbers 31 and 48 had won 3 and 4 times respectively.

Conclusion

It's not always with the most wins that usually win again. For example, if a lotto number had already won 7 or 8 times, it may stop trending because a number cannot be forever trending. For greater probability, you may opt to pick numbers that had won only once, twice, thrice or 4 times. In other cases, a number that had won 5 times can win again the 6th time.

• Win value 0. Your jackpot numbers may contain 1 cold number or in hibernation (28% probability) but rarely 2 cold numbers or more.
• Win value 1. Your jackpot numbers may contain 1 or 2 numbers with a winning value of 1 (64%) but rarely to contain 3 or more.
• Win values 2 and 3. Your jackpot numbers may contain 1, 2 or 3 numbers with a winning value of 2 or 3 (80% and 77% respectively) but rarely to contain 4 or more.
• Win value 4. Your jackpot numbers may contain 1 or 2 numbers with a winning value of 4 (57%); more than 2 is rare.
• Win values 5 and 6. Your jackpot numbers may contain only 1 number with a winning value of 5 or 6 (29% and 12% respectively); more than 1 is rare.
• Win values 7 or greater. Jackpot numbers very rarely contain a number with a winning value of 7 or higher (6% probability).

Let me illustrate further.

Suppose, your combination all contain a winning value of zero (000000); which means all of your numbers are in the cold zone (have not been winning for more than 21 draws consecutively). Is this possible yes but the probability to happen is almost nada because if you'll look at the table (row 0 column 6), the probability is 0%.

What if the winning values of your combination are 121223, is the probability high? Data say that two 1s have a good probability. Three 2s is also good though low at 13% but least the probability of having two 2s  or at least one, is high (35% + 31%).

What if the winning values are 440244? Data say that having four 4s have 0.5% probability only. Might as well limit the 4s to one only or two such as 440213 instead.

Note that the order of the winning values is not significant.

The Sum of Winning Values

When is a number to likely win again?

A lottery number ages after it has won. For the purpose of this study, age refers to the number of draws that have passed, rather than to the number of days that passed. So, if a number had won again after 3 draws of not winning, its age was 4 (the draw it won again included).

You might ask the question: if a lotto number won in the current draw, will it win again in the next draw? It is very rare, though possible, for the same jackpot numbers to win twice consecutively. But part of it may -- perhaps 1 or 2 of the numbers may win again in the next draw.

What if the number that had not been winning for the last 12 draws or even more than 30 draws, when is it going to win again? Let us look at the numbers.

Time-based Winning Frequency

Understanding the Time-based table

Age. Age refers to the number of draws that have passed counting from the most recent one. So, age 6 would be the 6th draw counting backwards from the latest draw.

Count. Count is the multiple times any lotto number had won at a particular age. For example, there were 1635 times when some lotto numbers had won again in the next draw (age 1); that is, winning twice consecutively (called a repeater). At age 2, a number may win again after 2 draws; and so forth and so on.

Probability rates or percentage. The first is the percentage over all instances. For example, 1635 count over all 13,554 counts or instances (1635 / 13554 = 12.06%). The second is the accumulated percentages. The third is the percentage per colour group.

Analysis

Purple zone. If you add all the rates in the purple zone, you get 54.14%. This means that more than 50% of the winning numbers usually come from the last 6 draws. Let us colour this period purple. 

Yellow zone. 15% of the winning numbers usually come from the ages 7, 8 and 9. This means, if somehow, a lotto number has not been winning for more than 6 draws but less than 10, the chance of winning again is 15%. Let us colour this period yellow. 

Together, the purple and the yellow zones make 69% of the winning numbers.

Green zone. The green zone makes the 16.7% of the winning numbers. It covers the next 6 draws passed or ages 10 - 15. If you include the green zone with yellow and purple, that makes 85.9% of the winning numbers. Let us colour this period green.

At this point, if the numbers that you wish to play come from the first 3 zones (purple, yellow, and green), there is already, theoretically, an 85% chance of winning.

Blue and aqua zones. We now enter the cold zones which comprise the 12.2% of the winning numbers. The blue zone covers 6 draws (age 16 - 21) while the aqua zone (age 22 - 30) covers 9 draws. The chance for these numbers to win again is around 1% only. Let us colour these zones blue and aqua or cyan.

Grey zone. And lastly, the grey zone which is referred to as the hibernation period. It refers to ages older than 30. If a number has reached its hibernation, its chance of winning again is less than 1%.

Observation

The purple zone can likely produce 3 winning numbers (54%); while the other 3 may come from the yellow, green and/or blue zones -- perhaps one from each colour. But how often can this occur? Definitely, the colour pattern PPPYGB cannot be 100% consistent. At other times, it can be PPPYGG. But that's not all because there are 462 possibilities.

The Super 649 Calculator

The Super 649 Calculator is a spreadsheet tool that is available online (soon!) on Google Sheets. Principally, what it does is that it validates your lotto number combination based on multiple higher probability factors. It tells you whether your combination has a greater or lesser probability. This chapter explains how to use it.

FAQ

What is Super Lotto 6/49?

Super Lotto 6/49 is a system 6 lottery system wherein you play 6 numbers from 1 to 49. 

How many combinations can be formed from numbers 1 - 49?

The number of 6-number combinations that can be formed from 1 - 49 is 13,983,816. This is a type of combination where order of numbers is not significant and no single number can be repeated.

What is the odds of winning a lottery 6/49?

The odds of winning a lottery 6/49 is 1 : 13,983,816.

Source of data: The subject of the study was a collection of jackpot numbers drawn from a lottery system 6/49 called Super Lotto. It covered draw results from 2007 - 2022. Super Lotto 6/49 is operated by the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office.