Ultra Lotto 6/58 All-Time Winning Frequency Probability

How Frequent Each Number Wins

Most likely, the first thing that you would want to find out is which of the numbers win most frequently. Once you’ve got that knowledge, you’d be excited to go to the lotto outlet and play. But wait! Did you know that top winning numbers do not win all at the same time?

All-Time Winning Frequency of Each Lotto 6/58 Numbers

Here are the numbers ⎯ 1 to 58 ⎯ and the statistics on how they are performing ⎯ which numbers are performing well; and which do not? The winning frequencies is arranged, supposedly, highest to lowest (let me know if it's not ~ed). Also, the lotto numbers are divided into 6 groups (called hextile). This is to ensure that the numbers of your combination do not come from one hex group alone for the reason that, probability wise, at most, each hex group usually can produce only two winning numbers.

Winning Frequency of Each of Lotto 58 Numbers

For a full report, read Ultra Lotto 6/58 Draw Results Statistics and Probability Studies.

The following chart is based on 2018 and earlier data. Hover on the bar to see the figures.

Update: Winning frequency of each lotto number ranges from 7.4% to 12.7%.

In terms of percentages, the probability of each number to win ranges from 6.5% to 13.0% ⎯ a close low probability. In fact, the top 12 winning numbers win at only 11.5% - 12.7% (as of August 2019)  12% - 13% probability; yet they are the top performers. It looks like that each lotto number shares equal chances of winning.

Between 6.5% and 13.0%, it looks like that there’s not much difference. But in terms of frequency, you can see the significant difference between a high and low numbers. For example, #13 has won 55 times versus #55, which has won 26 times.

Through time, the probability of each ultra lotto 6/58 number has not changed drastically. From time to time, a number's winning frequency may swing up or down, but overall, the probability plateaus around 6% to 13%.

What’s the logic behind the low probability?

Assuming that there were 1000 results examined. For each result, 6 numbers were drawn; all in all, 6000 balls were drawn (1000 x 6). That means, if all the 58 numbers were drawn equally, each number would have been drawn 103 times (6000 / 58); or 10.3% probability share. Therefore, the probability of each number winning would be just around 10%, more or less. That’s the reason why the probability rates of the top winning numbers are very low. In other words, there’s too much competition for each of the 58 lotto numbers.

Top Winners Do Not Win All The Time

Why don’t the top winning numbers win all the time? If they do, we will be seeing the same set of numbers in every draw.

Let’s examine number 13.

In 2015, lotto #13 topped all numbers at 20.2%. It peaked even higher in 2016 at 25.2%. In 2017, its probability fell to 19.7%, yet it remained the #1 most frequent winner. In 2018, #13 dropped to 11.4%; eclipsed by #15 and #01 at 20.3%. Overall, however, lotto number 13 maintains its rank at #1.

Therefore, it’s not all the time that a number stays on top. At certain periods, top numbers tend to hibernate; while some timid numbers would suddenly peak on top. It appears that what goes up must come down; and when it’s down, it bounces back up. For this reason, it is also important to look at the frequency of winning of each number at shorter periods.

Testing the Top 6

Let’s find out what would happen if we would consistently play the top winning numbers.

The top winning numbers at the end of 2018 were:

06 • 25 • 53 • 13 • 22 • 34

If you had played these numbers regularly in 2019, you would have won:

• A combination of 4 of these numbers had won once (minor prize)
• Any combination of 3 of these numbers had won 14 times (minor prize)
• Any combination of 2 of these numbers had won 73 times (no prize)
• Any 1 of these numbers had won 248 times (no prize)
• Didn’t win any 243 times

Based on the results just presented, playing the top numbers seemed not the best idea. So, where do the winning numbers come from if the top numbers do not guarantee winning?

Are Your Numbers Winning Frequently?

Knowing which numbers win most frequently can tell you why you're numbers are not winning. For example, is #55 your favourite? This number's performance is low; and that's the reason why it does not win more frequently. On the other hand, playing all the top winning numbers is not a good idea. There's a zero probability that 6 of the top winning numbers to make it as a winning result. Often times, at 42.8%, only 1 top winning number can make it. Even the chance of winning 3 numbers is only 6.7%.

So, where do the winning numbers come from? We'll find that out next.

Conclusion

Playing the top winning numbers does not guarantee winning. It does not even increase your chance of winning significantly. If the top winning numbers do not guarantee winning, which do?
In the future posts, I am going to classify the winning numbers into separate groups. With that procedure, perhaps we would be able to determine where the winning numbers usually come from.