How do you determine which lotto number is trending? Are trending numbers a sure win? Let's find out with the use of statistics.
The Probability of Trending Lotto Numbers
In a previous post, we determine the trending numbers based on the last 21 draws. Later, we reduced it to 15, then to 12. The reason for that is that there were numbers with high trending score but were actually not trending. In a way, the high trending score was misleading.In this post, we have reduced the trending period to only the last 6 draws. So, this post can be titled Trending Lotto Numbers Reconfigured.
Trending Period
Establishing the Trending Period
What’s trending and what’s not? First, we have to establish what is considered the ideal period to define what’s trending and what’s not.A lotto number is trending if it wins more frequently than the other numbers in a short period. At least, a number should have won twice during a certain short period in order to be considered trending.
If a number has won twice in a row, that’s trending. If it has won twice for the last 3 draws, that’s also trending. If it has not won for the last 5 draws, then it’s starting not to trend, unless it wins again. If it has not won for a period longer than that, say in the last 7 draws, then it is no longer trending.
Based on calculated statistics, a lotto number for system 6/58 would usually win again after around 5 to 9 draws; on an average, around 7 draws, which is the most frequent one. So, if a number would usually win again within a shorter period than 7 draws, that number is definitely trending.
Defining the 7th draw as the margin or border, we therefore are going to establish our trending period to comprise the last 1 to 6 draws.
The trending period is dynamic. As one new draw occurs, the trending period shifts to welcome new trending numbers while it dispenses the older ones. This is the reason why trending numbers come and go. What’s trending today may not trend tomorrow only to trend again after a few days.
Which Trending Numbers Usually Win
After collecting the data, the statistics below reveals which numbers usually win? What’s the probability of winning if you should play all the trending numbers? Let’s find out.Based on 2496 balls drawn:
- Numbers that have trended have a 2% probability of winning;
- Numbers that are trending have an 11.1% chance of winning;
- Numbers that are likely to trend have a 35.1% chance of winning;
- Numbers that are not trending have a 51.6% chance of winning.
How come non-trending numbers are likely to win more than the trending numbers?
Here’s the explanation.- If some numbers have trended, say, had won 3 times in the last 6 draws, which is the trending period, only one of them is likely to win again at 11% probability. The chance of such number not to win again is much greater at 88.5% probability.
- Numbers that are trending are those that have won 2 times in the last 6 draws. Only one trending number is likely to win again at 39.1% probability. The chance for a trending number not to win again is 48.4%.
- Numbers that are likely to trend are those that have won only once in the trending period. Two of these numbers are more likely to win at 34.5% probability. At 23% probability, 1 or 3 numbers of this sort can likely win.
- Numbers that do not trend are those beyond the trending period (older than the last 6 draws). Among the numbers that do not trend, most likely 2 - 4 of them will win at 21% - 37% probability.
- If a number has won more than 3 times in the last 6 draws, there’s a 99% probability that it will not win again; but it may, after some time, in the next trending period.
Let’s Review
Combining Numbers Using the Trending Method
Combining numbers using the trending method is a strategy that you can do manually; without the need of automated calculation such as in spreadsheets or apps. All you have to do is to gather the winning numbers from the last 6 draws and count.Here’s how to do it
- List all the numbers that have won from the last 6 draws. This is your trending numbers list.
- Count the number of times each number has won. Let’s call this the score.
- If there are numbers that scored 3, pick one or none.
- If there are numbers that scored 2, pick one or none. Between the scores 2 and 3, favour 2.
- Definitely, there will be numbers that scored one. Pick 1, 2, or 3 numbers that scored one.
- List the rest of the numbers that have not won in the last 6 draws. These are the numbers that are not in your trending numbers list. Call this second list your non-trending list.
- Pick 2, 3, or 4 numbers from the non-trending list. Give priority to the most recent ones. The numbers that have won from the last 12 - 13 draws are likely to win again than those numbers that have only won previous to that.
- If there are more than one number that scored 2, pick another one and form another combination. Pick the rest of the numbers as stated above.
Trending Numbers With Pre-Calculated Combinations
To help you with combining your numbers using the trending method, the data are provided below. In this lotto worksheet, you will find:- The latest results of Ultra Lotto 6/58 from the last 6 draws;
- The trending data where each lotto number is scored;
- The 58 lotto numbers classified as hot, trended, trending, about to trend, and not trending;
- An automatic lotto 6/58 combination generator with validation based on odd:even and low:high ratios.
Math and Gut Feel
This trending strategy can increase your odds of winning; but of course, the more challenging part, considering that there are many choices and possibilities, is to pick which numbers that you wish to play.Statistics can give you the factual figures but the choice remains at your hands. If you are given 5 trending numbers, and allowed to pick only one, which one would you pick to combine with other numbers? The choice is yours.
In such case, when met at crossroads, trust your intuition or gut feel. Your first choice is usually right; or is it?
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