Methodology
The winning instances of each lotto number were counted, then ranked based on percentile. Top winning numbers are those that win most frequently compared to the other lotto numbers. Top ranking numbers are basically the same except that they are expressed in terms of percentage. Thus, the most frequently winning numbers would be ranked, for example, from 90% - 100%; whereas the low performing numbers would be ranked from 0% - 10%.The Top and Bottom Tenths
At this point, you already know that winning numbers are a mix of top and bottom numbers. However, you are still left with 58 numbers to choose from: more or less 29 top; and 29 bottom.So, the next question is: which top and which bottom numbers are you going to combine?
Perhaps, if we could further divide and classify the top and bottom numbers, say in 10 divisions, could we get a clearer picture? Let’s find out.
I divided the data into tenths: the top 10%, the 2nd top 10th, 3rd, etc up to the bottom 10%. The results are:
From %
|
To %
|
Instance
|
%
|
0
|
10
|
358
|
11%
|
10
|
20
|
406
|
13%
|
20
|
30
|
349
|
11%
|
30
|
40
|
278
|
9%
|
40
|
50
|
274
|
9%
|
50
|
60
|
304
|
10%
|
60
|
70
|
310
|
10%
|
70
|
80
|
255
|
8%
|
80
|
90
|
313
|
10%
|
90
|
100
|
279
|
9%
|
Based on the above data, it revealed that each 10th group, had a fair share of producing almost the same percentage of winning numbers. Though, by just a bit, to compare the top and bottom 10th, lotto numbers that ranked 10% - 20% seemed to win more (13%) compared to those that rank 70% - 80% (8%). The difference, however, is just 5%.
Overall, the probability rates for each tenth group range from a close 8% to 13%. We can deduce here that each 1/10th group is as good as the other. Though there are groups that would produce more winning numbers compared to the others, the differences are not that significant.
Let's try 4 divisions. Maybe, we could get something.
Top & Bottom Quarters
By dividing the data into 4, we produce what is called a quartile. It is simply dividing the top 50% into 2; and the bottom 50% also into 2.
From %
|
To %
|
Freq
|
%
|
0
|
25
|
959
|
31%
|
25
|
50
|
706
|
23%
|
50
|
75
|
774
|
25%
|
75
|
100
|
687
|
22%
|
The 4 groups comprise the top 25%, bottom 25%, and middle 25%‘s. The probability rates for each quartile group to produce a winning number ranges from 22% to 31%. Let’s analyze the top and bottom 4ths.
Based on 583 draws, numbers that rank 0% - 25% (equivalent to 959 winning numbers) are likely to win more compared to numbers that rank 75% - 100% (687 winning numbers). In terms of percentage, it is 31% vs 22%; a difference of 9%.
Based on the said figures, it looks like that the bottom numbers are more likely to win than the top winning numbers. Quite an irony!
So, how is it that the bottom numbers win more than the tops? One reason is that there are more bottom numbers than top numbers. So, the chance of drawing a bottom number is greater than that of a top number.
Let’s try six divisions.
Top Winning Numbers Per Hextile
Previously, we asked the questions:How top is top and how bottom is bottom?
When combining numbers, how many top numbers should you pick; how many bottom numbers?
Jackpot numbers are in sets of 6. So, why not divide the data into 6 groups. By classifying the data into 6 divisions, we will be able to answer the above questions.
Top, Middle & Bottom Numbers
Earlier, you learned about top and bottom numbers. Now, we are going to include another section: the middle numbers, which are as important as the top and bottom numbers.First, let’s identify the major divisions. By dividing the data into 3 groups, we shall have the:
- Top one-third (⅓)
- Middle third (⅓)
- Bottom third (⅓)
- H1. The top 1/6th or those that rank 83.34% - 100%
- H2. The second top sixth or those that rank 66.68% - 83.33%
- H3. The upper middle sixth or those that rank 50.01% - 66.67%
- H4. The lower middle sixth or those that rank 33.34% - 50%
- H5. The upper bottom sixth or those that rank 16.68% - 33.33%
- H6. The bottom sixth or those that rank 0 to 16.67%
Winning Frequency of Numbers Per Hex Group
Having divided the rankings into 6 groups, is it possible that each winning number would come from each group? Let’s take a look at the data.
Instance
|
H1
|
H2
|
H3
|
H4
|
H5
|
H6
|
HS
|
0
|
36%
|
36%
|
33%
|
37%
|
29%
|
29%
|
0%
|
1
|
43%
|
40%
|
41%
|
41%
|
42%
|
44%
|
0%
|
2
|
17%
|
21%
|
21%
|
18%
|
21%
|
20%
|
1%
|
3
|
3%
|
3%
|
5%
|
4%
|
7%
|
6%
|
24%
|
4
|
0%
|
1%
|
0%
|
1%
|
1%
|
0%
|
51%
|
5
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
23%
|
6
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
1%
|
The above data reveal that each hextile group would usually produce, at most (40% ⎯ 44%), one winning number. At slightly lower percentage (29% ⎯ 37%), it might not deliver any winning number. At rare instances (17% ⎯ 21%), each hextile group can produce 2 winning numbers at the same time. Rarely that each group can produce 3 winning numbers all at the same time. And it is almost not probable for any group to produce all 5 or 6 winning numbers in one draw.
To apply the data, when combining numbers, limit your numbers to 1 or 2 per group. For example, pick 1 or 2 numbers that rank 83% - 100%; pick 1 or 2 numbers that rank 16% - 33%.
Let’s look further at the data.
The last column HS presents the probability of how many hextile groups would usually deliver winning numbers.
At more than half (51%), winning numbers would normally come from only 4 hextile groups. This means that 2 groups would not deliver any winning number. This also explains why there’s a 29% ⎯ 37% probability that a group would not deliver a winning number.
At almost equal probability, only 3 groups (at 24%), may deliver the winning numbers; on other cases, 5 groups (at 23%). On the other hand, it is almost not probable (at 1%) that only 2 or 6 groups would deliver the winning numbers; and at 0% probability that all winning numbers could come only from 1 group.
In short, having 6 groups of data, pick 3 to 5 groups. From these groups, pick your 6 lotto numbers.
To give you an idea which numbers are ranking high or low, the charts are below.
H1. Top Numbers Ranking 83.33% - 100%
These are the top performers. They ranked the highest above the rest.The top sixth may comprise, more or less, 6 to 13 lotto numbers depending on how the numbers are doing. The chart below shows the current top performing numbers ranking 83% - 100%. Probability says that at most, 1 or 2 winning numbers may come from this group. But there's also a strong probability that no winning number may come from this group. At very rare instances, 3 winning numbers may come from this group.
Assuming you picked 6 numbers from the top sixth, how would they fare? Would they all win? Let's look at the data based on 531 draws.
The probability of matching —
- 5 to 6 numbers is 0%
- 4 numbers is 0%
- 3 numbers is 3%
- 2 numbers is 17%
- 1 number is 43%
- not one number (zero) is 36%
H2. Top Numbers Ranking 66.67% - 83.33%
These are the secondary top numbers. The runner-ups.Assuming you picked your numbers from this group, the probability that —
- No winning number would come from the H2 group is 36%
- One number may possibly match is 40%
- Two numbers may possibly match is 21%
- 3 numbers may possibly match at 3%
- 4 numbers to match at 1%
- 5 to 6 numbers to match is 0%
The Top Third (H1 + H2)
Let's now find out the probability of winning if you are going to pick your combinations only from the top one-third or top winning numbers that rank 33.33% - 100%.If you are going to pick your 6-number combination only from the top third numbers, the probability of matching —
- no number is 9%
- 1 number is 31%
- 2 numbers is 30%
- 3 numbers 24%
- 4 numbers is 5%
- 5 numbers is 1%
- 6 numbers is 0%
There are cases, but very rarely, when no winning number will come from the top ones. So far there was only one instance when all the six winning numbers came from the top third.
H3. Numbers Ranking 50% - 66.67%
These are the middle top numbers which are just above the median. Could the other winning numbers possibly come from the middle ones? Let's see the results.The chart below shows the winning numbers that perform just near the average.
The probability that a winning lotto number to come from the middle top is 67%. However, only 5% is considered prized winners (possibly winning 3 numbers at most).
If you choose your numbers only from this group, the probability of matching —
- 6 numbers is 0%
- 5 numbers is 0%
- 4 numbers is 0%
- 3 numbers is 5%
- 2 numbers is 21%
- 1 number is 41%
- 0 number is 33%
So far, you already know that —
- 1 or 2 numbers from group H1, H2, H3 can possibly win
The Top 50% (H1 + H2 + H3)
The top 50% are the numbers that belong to the groups H1, H2, and H3. These are the numbers that usually win more frequently compared to the bottom 50% numbers. Let's now find out if there is a strong probability that the winning numbers would usually come from the Top 50%.Based on statistics, if you are going to pick your six numbers from the Top 50% numbers, the probability of matching —
- 6 numbers is 1%
- 5 numbers is 6%
- 4 numbers is 19%
- 3 numbers is 33%
- 2 numbers is 20.65%
- 1 number is 12%
- 0 number is 1.5%
- If you are aiming to win the jackpot prize, your numbers should not only come from the top 50% because its probability is only 1%.
- If you are already happy to win 5 numbers, the top 50% can only give you a 6% chance.
- Most likely, the top 50% is a good source to match 2 to 4 numbers.
- If 2 to 4 numbers from the top 50% could possibly win, then the other numbers would be coming from the bottom group.
H4. Numbers Ranking 33.33% - 50%
These are the middle bottom numbers. They perform just the average but below the median.You already know by now that 2 to 3 winning numbers could come from the bottom group. The question is: from which group?
The chart that follows shows the numbers from the middle bottom (group H4).
Based on 531 results, the probability that —
- no winning number would come from the middle bottom is 37%
- 1 winning number would come from the middle bottom is 40%
- 2 winning numbers, 18%
- 3 winning numbers, 4%
- 4 winning numbers, 1%
- 5 or 6 winning numbers, 0%
H5. Numbers Ranking 16.67% - 33.33%
The bottom 1/3 is divided into two: the upper bottom (H5) and the lower bottom (H6). The numbers in the following chart comprise the upper bottom.Based on 531 results, the probability of the upper bottom numbers to win is —
- no winning number, 28%
- 1 winning number, 43%
- 2 winning numbers, 21%
- 3 winning numbers, 7%
- 4 winning numbers, 1%
- 5 or 6 winning numbers, 0%
H6. Numbers Ranking 0% - 16.67%
These are the low-performing bottom numbers. The bottom 1/6th are the numbers that rarely win. So, let's now find out if it is worth risking to play a number from this bottom group.The following chart reveals the bottom one-sixth numbers.
Statistics reveals that the probability of —
- no winning number to come from this group is 29%
- 1 winning number, 44%
- 2 winning numbers, 20%
- 3 winning numbers, 6%
- 4 winning numbers, 0%
- 5 or 6 winning numbers, 0%
The Bottom Third (H5 + H6)
Let's now find out what would statistics reveal with the bottom one-third.Statistics says that the probability of —
- no winning number to come from the bottom third is 5%
- 1 winning number, 20%
- 2 winning numbers, 33%
- 3 winning numbers, 28%
- 4 winning numbers, 13%
- 5 winning numbers, 1%
- 6 winning numbers, 0%
Conclusion
- Each group has the probability to produce at least 1 winning number; in few cases, 2 winning numbers.
- There is zero probability that 5 or 6 winning numbers to come from one group alone.
- Winning numbers come from either 3, 4, or 5 groups.
- The group that gives more winning probability are, in this order: H5, H6, H3, H1 or H2, H4. In other words, go bottom (H5 H6), then go middle above the median (H3), then go top (H1 or H2); and lastly, H4. To help you remember: 563124.
how would this apply to lower number pools? such as 6/42,6/45 etc.
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