5/18/2015

Grand Lotto: Where Winning Numbers Come From


Is it possible to determine where winning numbers might come from?

Upon analyzing thousands of results, winning numbers usually come from certain areas. I defined these areas as follows:

  1. The hot area. This refers to the last 6 draws. If you can see the matrix image above, it is the red area.
  2. The fall area. Counting backwards, this refers to the last 7th to the 15th draw. In other words, the next 9 draws prior to the last 6 draws. In the matrix image, these are the yellow and green areas.
  3. The cold area. All draw results earlier than or beyond the last 15 draws are called the cold area. In the matrix image, this is the blue area and beyond that.
All in all, the results matrix above cover the last 21 draw results. Anything beyond that are numbers in the hibernation period, which is also part of the cold area.

The Cold Area

All numbers that have not been winning for the last 15 draws or more are called cold numbers. All numbers that have not been winning for the last 15 draws are said to be in the hibernation period. Once a number enters the blue area, most likely it will remain cold for many days, especially when it enters the hibernation period. I also call this the winter season.

Is it possible for a cold number to win?

Definitely. Though a number has a tendency to turn cold and hibernate, eventually it is going to win again. It's just a matter of time; and that time is unpredictable.

Based on statistical data, one winning number may come from the cold area. In some cases, no winning number may come from that area. Though possible, it is extremely an extraordinary case that 3 to 6 numbers will come from the cold area.

Numbers that are in the cold area (blue area in the matrix) that are not yet in the hibernation period are more likely to win again than the cold numbers which are already in the hibernation period.

Applying The Cold Treatment

Take a look at the results matrix above and examine the numbers in the blue area. The 6 numbers in white circle or white disc are currently the cold numbers. There are two numbers in the hibernation period (not shown) - 21 and 39. If you are going to pick a number, pick one from the 6. This is the normal trend. The other side of the coin is that no winning number may come from the cold area. That means, the winning numbers can only come from the red, yellow, and green areas.

If your favorite numbers are mostly in the cold area right now, do not change your combination. Instead, play another set. 

Let's calculate using probability. There are currently 8 cold numbers.
8 / 55 = 14.5%
14.5% of 6 is 0.87, or 1 rounded off. This means that only 1 of the 8 cold numbers may possibly win unless an extraordinary case will occur.

Just or fun

Examine further the matrix. What do you think of the egg numbers (numbers ending in zero)? Are they turning hot or cold? How about the numbers ending in 2?

The Fall Area

I call this the fall area because the numbers here tend to turn cold. The fall area is divided into two: spring and autumn. In the matrix above, the yellow area is what I call the spring season, so called because the numbers here have a tendency to be hot again. In a way, these numbers bounce back instead of to turn cold. The numbers in the green or autumn area tend to turn colder. Statistically, once a number enters the green zone, most likely, it will continue to turn colder.

Withering In Autumn

Normally, only one winning number comes from the autumn area (green area in the matrix above). In some cases, two or none can come from this area. Depending on how many numbers are left in the autumn area, 3 or more winning numbers can come from this area. Beyond the norm, everything else is an extraordinary case.

Let's calculate. Examine the matrix above. There are 12 numbers (in white disc) that have the tendency to turn cold.
12 / 55 = 21.8%
21.8% of 6 is 1.3; which means 1 winning number may come from this area.

If we combine the numbers in the blue and green areas, 18 numbers have ceased to be hot. Let's calculate.
18 / 55 = 32.7%
32.7% of 6 is 1.96; or 2 rounded off. This means that there is a possibility that 2 of the winning numbers may come from this green-blue area. You may pick one from blue and one from green; or 2 from green. Other than that is extraordinary, which is not a bad thing, if you want to challenge yourself. In such case, you are free to play 3 numbers or more from these areas.

Spring Is Back

Compared to the green area, the numbers in the spring season (yellow area in the matrix) tend to win more likely and become hot again. These numbers have the habit to spring back to the limelight.

Statistically, only one winning number can come from this area. In some cases, there is none. So far, it is impossible that 6 winning numbers can come from this area for the reason that it has not happened yet. If that happens, that would be one of the extraordinary cases in spring.

Let's calculate. There are 7 numbers in the spring area that have the tendency to be hot again.
7 / 55 = 12.7%
12.7% of 6 is 0.76; or 1 rounded off. That means, probability says that one winning number may come from spring.

Just for fun

Notice anything in the spring area? Looks like the threes are blooming. Maybe, 03 will leave the winter; or 53 may not fall in autumn. On the other hand, maybe, it's just signifying 35?

Red Hot Summer

This area is the hottest of them all. You will find all the hot numbers here. In the matrix above, this is shaded in red.

Statistically, 2 to 4 of the winning numbers come from the red hot district, referring to the last 6 draw results. Most often, 3 winning numbers are found here. In some cases, 2 or 4 winning numbers can come from here. It is very rare that only 1 winning number can from the hot area. There are special cases when 6 winning numbers can come from the red hot area.

Let's calculate. There are 28 hot numbers (in white circle) currently.
28 / 55 = 51%
51% of 6 is 3.05; that means it is very possible that 3 winning numbers, at least, will come from the red area.

The problem with the hot area is that there are too many numbers to choose from. In that case, let's just have fun.

What do you notice in the red area? Are there too many 2s and 4s? What about 6 and 9? How many numbers are consecutively obvious?

How did I come out with the matrix?

Just easy. Simply reveal the unique numbers, which means crossing out the duplicates of each number. Work from current to earlier results.

Good Luck! Hope this helps!

Remember.
  • Think out of the box. Often times, there's only one jackpot winner. Therefore, his number combination is unique.
  • Hypothetically, numbers played by the majority tend to turn cold. Numbers played by a few turn hot.
  • The lottery is a game of chance. The probability of winning is very slim. If you didn't win, don't say "I didn't win." Instead, say "I am happy to have made a small donation to charity".  


5/14/2015

How To Win From Scratch-off Game Cards



One good thing about Scratch It or scratch-off game cards is that it is certain that for each batch of scratch cards, there are winning cards. It's just that we cannot determine the probability of winning for the reason that we do not have a complete data. We can only assume.

Playing only one card is not fun. Buy 5 cards at least to enjoy the suspense of revealing the winning numbers.

Some Tips In Playing Scratch-off Game Cards

  1. Pick game cards with low payout prizes. The lower the payout prize, the better chances you may have to scratch a winning card.
  2. Buy in sets like 5 cards or more. The winning cards above are from 15 scratch-off cards. Four of them are winning cards. However, this scenario cannot always be true. It is possible though, that there may be only one winning ticket from a sequence of 15 tickets. 
  3. Don't buy cards everyday especially if you have just won a major prize because most likely the next cards are non-winning cards; unless, you wouldn't mind winning minor prizes only.
  4. There's only one jackpot prize for every batch of cards. A batch of cards can probably contain 10000 cards or more. The good news is that minor prize winning cards are spread in the whole batch. Though it is not standard and consistent that there is a winning card for every certain number of cards.
  5. Winning cards are not printed out at random. It follows a certain algorithm. The challenge is that you do not know which store has the winning cards.

Thinking Probability

We can only assume the probability of winning from scratch-off game cards. In order to do that, let us create a scenario from the point of view of a businessman.

How many cards should you print out in such a way that there is a winning card for every 5 cards, yet you earn a gross profit of around 30%? Remember that you need to satisfy your customers in playing the game. It is for that reason why you want to have a winning card for every 5 cards.

Let's take for example the card game above. It's a tic-tac-toe game wherein you match the 7s in a row, column or diagonally. The highest payout prize is P77,777 and the lowest is P20.

If you are going to pay out P77,777, then you have to sell more than 3889 scratch-off cards in order to profit. Each card sells at P20 each. If you want to profit twice as much, you must sell 7778 cards. But there are other things to consider like cost of printing and overhead. So, you need to sell more than 7778 cards.

So, let's assume that each batch order of scratch-off cards contain 5000 cards. And for every 10,000 cards, only one card can win P77,777. That means, all the other cards are non-winning cards. If that is the case, then no one would play the scratch-off game the second time around. Why? Psychologically speaking, in order for a customer to keep on buying scratch-off cards, he must experience winning most of the time even if the prize is only a small one.

Say a customer always buys 5 cards. Most of the time, one card wins P20. That customer would remember more winning from one card rather than losing from 4 cards.

What is the solution then for the businessman? The solution is to give out minor prizes. The question is: if your purpose is to have a winning card for every 5 cards, how many cards should win P20, P70, P170, P770, P7700, and P77,777? 

Let's calculate. The following is a possible algorithm. For every 5000 cards —
  1. Only 1 card wins either P77,777 or P7700 but not both.
  2. Only 4 cards win P770 each
  3. Ten cards win P170 each
  4. Twenty cards win P70 each
  5. 965 cards win P20 each
All in all, there are 1000 winning cards for every 5000 cards; or a ratio of 1:5. To simulate randomness, the winning cards are distributed unevenly. That means, for every 5 cards, there can be more than one winning cards, or none.



2/21/2015

EZ2 Lotto Top 1st & 2nd Ball Numbers (11AM)



This is a probability analysis of the 1st and 2nd ball numbers calculated separately. In other words, we are considering the exact order of the lotto results.

The 1st and 2nd draw of balls are two separate events for the reason that they come from two separate tumblers with two different sets of 31 balls. The events are similar but they do not happen at the same time and do not use the same paraphernalia. For that reason, it is possible that the results of the first ball may be different from the results of the second ball. With that, would the collected first draws of balls give similar results to those of the second draws of balls? Let's find out.

Findings

After collecting and calculating 2330 results, the following are the findings.

  • Only the lotto number 23 ranked 11th both from the first ball draw and the second ball.
  • All other numbers ranked differently from the first ball to the second ball.

Grouping the numbers into quartile or more divisions gives us a more comprehensive information. For this purpose, ranks 1 to 5 is group A, ranks 6 to 10 is group B, ranks 11 to 15 is group C, ranks 16 to 20 is group D, ranks 21 to 25 is group E, and ranks 26 to 31 is group F. By grouping them into 6, we can see, more or less, if there is any dependence or absolute opposition of the two events.

  • In group A, all results are unique. There are 10 numbers in this group. This means that the result of the first ball are not the same with that of the second.
  • In group B, all results are unique as well. There are also 10 numbers in this group. The 5 numbers from the first ball are not the same numbers from the second ball.
  • In group C, 13, 23, 30 are common 1st ball and 2nd ball results. This means that 13, 23, & 30 ranked 11th to 15th in the first ball and also in the second ball. The other 6 numbers are unique and are not related.
  • In group D, 01, 02, 29 are common. The other 4 numbers are unique.
  • In group E, only the number 03 is common. The other 6 numbers are unique.
  • In group F, 07 & 24 are common. All the other 8 numbers are unique.

Conclusion

The two events – first ball and second ball – do not produce the same results. What wins frequently from the first ball does not necessarily win frequently from the second ball. With that, you can zero in on the numbers that may probably increase more your odds of winning. See the rest of the results below.

Top EZ2 Lotto Numbers Based on 11AM Results
1st Ball 2nd Ball
Top
15 - 19 - 31 04 - 25 - 22
12 - 16 - 09 14 - 21 - 11
20 - 28 - 06 - 2516 - 27 - 17 - 15
23 - 26 - 04 - 08 - 13 - 3005 - 06 - 10 - 13 - 23 - 30
Bottom
21 - 01 - 02 - 27 - 29 08 - 29 - 31 - 01 - 02
11 - 03 - 14 - 10 03 - 12 - 26 - 18
07 - 05 - 18 - 22 - 17 - 2424 - 09 - 19 - 28 - 20 - 07

Data Sampled

The information presented are based on 2330 results from the EZ2 11:00 AM draws from 25 August 2008 up to 18 February 2015.

2/16/2015

Top EZ2 Lotto Numbers Of All Time


We have tallied the top performing EZ2 lotto numbers from each draw separately. This is with the assumption that the balls used in one draw are never used in the other draws. Three numbers – 04, 14, & 23 – consistently remained in the top 15 from all the daily draws. Twelve numbers remained in the top 15 from 2 draws but not from all draws; whereas, there were also twelve numbers that topped in one draw but not in the other draws. The remaining 4 numbers did not top from any draw. These are 09, 17, 18, & 20.

EZ2 Lotto All-Time Frequently Winning Numbers

From every draw, a different set of balls are used, selected from a multiple sets of balls. Assuming that the set of balls are non-exclusive to a particular draw, which means that all sets of balls can be used in any draw regardless of the time of draw, then at least, we can say that whatever factors that affect the drawing of the balls remain the same in every draw. Therefore, we can combine all the daily draw results as if they were from a single draw.

Combining all the data, the following table ranks the top 15 most frequently winning numbers, and the bottom 16 that win less frequently.
Top EZ2 Lotto Numbers of all Time
TopBottom
14 | 04 | 2528 | 30 | 26
16 | 08 | 0502 | 19 | 03
23 | 06 | 1027 | 07 | 29
22 | 15 | 2112 | 11 | 24
31 | 01 | 1317 | 20 | 18
09 |

The Facts In Numbers

Every draw, the probability that each number can possibly be drawn is 1 out of 31 chances, at most 2:31. That's 3.22% to 6.45% probability. That is the fact because there are 31 balls all in all, no more no less; and that, in every draw, two balls are drawn constantly.

To ensure your chances, you have to play all the 31 numbers. This guarantees that two of your numbers will be drawn. However, it does not guarantee winning yet because you may not have paired the two numbers correctly.

Here's another fact. To win the game, your chances of winning slims down because the probability of winning is 0.202% only, i.e. 1 out of 496 chances if you are playing your numbers in any order. If playing for an exact order, the probability of winning is 0.104%; i.e. 1 out of 961 chances. There are 961 possible combinations. If the order of numbers is not significant, there are 496 possible combinations. To increase your chances of winning, you have to play 200 combinations, but that just to break even in case your numbers win.

How Frequent Does Each Number Win

Playing the top performing numbers may increase your chances of winning; or at least, narrow down your choices of possible combinations. The top 15 numbers have won 524 - 581 times out of 16,226 events. (An event refers to the act of drawing a ball). The bottom 16 have won 482 - 523 times. All the 31 numbers share 2.97% - 3.58% winning chances. All in all, for every 28 to 34 events, i.e. for every chance of drawing a ball, a number may win once (1:28 - 1:34).

Relative to the number of draws, the top 15 numbers have 6.46% - 7.16% winning occurences. The bottom 16 numbers have 5.94% - 6.45% winning occurences. This assumes that no number is drawn twice in every draw.

In A Nutshell

Based on given facts, the probability of a number to be drawn is 1:31 or 3.22%. Based on statistical facts, the probability of a number to be drawn frequently ranges from 1:28 to 1:34, or 2.97% - 3.58%. See how close the figures are. This only proves that every number is a good number. However, comparing the winning frequency of 14 with 581 winning occurences and 9 with 482 winning occurences, that is a difference of 99 winning chances. So, would you rather play the number with 99 more winning chances or just ignore it?

Sampled Data

The data presented here is a result of analyzing 16226 winning numbers based on 8113 draws occurring from July 2004 to February 2015.

Next Chapter

In the next chapter, we will explore more about the winning frequency of each number. This time, we will separate the first draw of ball as a separate event from the second draw of the next ball. This is to find out any significance between the first draw of ball to that of the second ball. Note that in every draw, there are two sets of balls used separately. Which numbers are usually drawn first?

Some Interesting Facts

On 15 February 2015, lotto #14 ranked 1st; while #1 ranked 14th. The #23 ranked 7th; while #7 ranked 23rd. The #21 ranked 12th; while #31 ranked 13th.

2/12/2015

EZ2 Lotto Frequently Winning Numbers From 9PM Draws


Winning Frequency of Numbers 1 To 31 based on the 9:00 PM draw results

What are the numbers that usually win from the EZ2 Lotto 9:00 PM draws? Each number 1 to 31 have won 225 to 274 times since July 2004. Each number shares 2.95% to 3.59% winning chances out of 7638 balls drawn. Relative to the number of draws, the probability of each number to win ranges from 1:14 up to 1:17; i.e. one for every 14 to 17 draws. In terms of percentage, the probability of winning is 5.89% to 7.17%.

The top 5 most frequently winning EZ2 lotto numbers are: 07, 14, 08, 05, & 23. These numbers have won 257 to 274 times, a 6.89% to 7.17% probability. The bottom 5 are: 17, 27, 29, 18 & 02; all winning 225 to 229 times, or 5.89% to 6.0% probability.

What follows are the Top 15 and Bottom 16 of the EZ2 numbers based on the evening draws.

Frequently Winning EZ2 Lotto Numbers Based on 9PM Results
Top 15 Bottom 16
07 11
14 28
08 13
05 31
23 30
16 15
25 24
06 01
22 09
21 19
10 20
03 17
04 27
12 29
26 18
02

Common Top Numbers From The 3 Daily Draws

Three numbers topped from all the 3 daily draws: 04, 14 & 23. The other numbers topped only from any 2 draws. These are: 05, 06, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16, 21, 22, 25, 27, & 30. Using weighted average, two numbers came runner-up: 08 & 28. All other numbers not mentioned in this paragraph topped only from one of the daily draws.

Sampled Data

The data presented here covers 3819 results from the EZ2 lottery 9:00 PM draws from 5 July 2004 up to 10 February 2015.